Saturday, April 30, 2011

Nehro's Derby Outlook

Nehro's maiden win, his third career start, a two turn mile at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 10, Michael Baze) breaks slightly to his left and makes some inconsequential contact with a competitor. Baze elects to stay far off of the rail and travels around the clubhouse turn about five wide. He gets a superb setup up front (23, 47.18) and in a flash Nehro rifles past eight competitors, widest of them all to take the lead coming into the stretch. He strides out well to a powerful four and a half length win.


There's no doubt, visually, that Nehro's move on the far turn was quite dashing but it turns out to be fool's gold. Nehro was rallying into very slow fractions (furlongs four through six were run in a lethargic 26.11) and he didn't finish up very fast either (furlongs six through eight went in 25.91). So while many of us thought we may have been looking at the next coming of Afleet Alex, Nehro's win had much more to do with this group of maiden's inability to get the mile distance.


Couldn't find a chart for the race but note that Nehro earned a 79 beyer speed figure here.

The Grade Two Louisiana Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at the Fair Grounds. 

Nehro (Post Position 3, Michael Baze) breaks a bit off balance and makes minor contact with Mavericking to his right. He draws a nice spot, two wide, in third and fourth around the first turn. As they round the final turn, Nehro finds himself inconvenienced for a moment when becomes trapped along the rail. He finds running room after losing momentum and closes well down the stretch, still down on the inside, coming up a half length short to a tiring Pants On Fire.


Much to decipher here - first, there is Nehro's trip. Having expected to see him lope along in the back off the pack off of his maiden win, his versatility to sit closer to the lead is encouraging (but maybe the reason why Baze was taken off him after this race). And had he not found trouble at the top of the stretch he would have likely won the race.


The pace - it certainly held up, with the first three finishers having run 2-3-4 just about the entire race, but I'm not totally inclined to point to the, somewhat, slow pace as much of an aide. The best closers here were Elite Alex, Machen, and Wilkinson - not exactly any world beaters. The race was slow enough (94 beyer) that this group of closers had no excuse not to make any noise, so perhaps the pace didn't have as much to do with the result as we might have originally thought. 

Full chart

The Grade One Arkansas Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 1, Corey Nakatani) has no trouble at the gate and quickly drops out of it along the rail. He gets a dream setup with J P's Gusto craving out swift fractions (22.54, 46.53) and begins to advance, swinging out wide, on the second turn as the pace begins to collapse. Nehro puts up a notable run down the stretch to just miss, the also closing, Archarcharch at the wire.


A terrific race from Nehro, although he got a dream setup pace wise (fast early fractions, slow late) - to have made up almost three lengths on Archarcharch, who also reaped the benefits of the fast pace, in the stretch to only lose by a neck was fantastic. Note Nehro also galloped out far very well.

Full chart

Final thoughts - Nehro, particularly in his final prep, has shown a honed, much desired (particularly in the Derby), quality to sit back and pick up the pieces late. Nehro will be closing late, how potent his kick will be depends on the amount of early speed in the race, and if you're looking for a closer he has displayed he's, quite possibly, the class of that group. His run in the Louisiana Derby also proved his versatility, which will be called on a week from today. His pedigree confirms, as well as his gallop out in the Arkansas Derby, that the final furlong should be no problem. I'm lastly encouraged with his professionalism, despite only five lifetime starts. 

If you subscribe to the thinking that they'll be a hot pace come Derby day, this is probably your guy. Here's to hoping he floats up to 10-1.


Nehro's PP's

Friday, April 29, 2011

Uncle Mo's Derby Outlook

With the Kentucky Derby right around the corner, I'm going to do the best I can to go back and look at some of this year's contenders prior races using trip handicapping. I've already examined Dialed In, having guest posted over at WirePlayers.

Disclaimer: This group has shown to be highly erratic (Mine That Bird would be formidable this year) and given the Derby's usual uncertainly, even with a formful prep season, we're in for quite a task to come up with a winner.

Here are Uncle Mo's PP's, as well as a link to the video of his debut race as a two year old last summer at Saratoga.


The Grade One Champagne stakes, a one turn mile at Belmont Park.


Uncle Mo (Post Position 3, John Velazquez) breaks well and has no problem making the lead with the other main speed, I'm Steppin' It Up to his outside. He duels with I'm Steppin' It up while retaining a head advantage as Velazquez keeps a strong hold of Mo. Despite Velazquez's efforts to ration Mo's speed, they set a brisk early pace of 22:2 and 45:4. Coming into the stretch he disposes of I'm Steppin' It Up and never lets the oncoming Mountain Town mount a serious bid, despite slightly lugging in a few times down the stretch as he strides out to a four and three quarter length win without much urging. 


A classy win here - running an an opening quarter of 22:4 and still having enough in the tank to finish his final two furlongs in nearly :24 flat in September of his two year old season off of just one career, six furlong, race. None of his competitors in this race have turned out to be much but that isn't enough to take away from this fabulous race from Uncle Mo. 

Full chart
The Grade One Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a mile and a sixteenth going two turns at Churchill Downs.

Uncle Mo (Post Position 7, John Velazquez) breaks from the gate perfectly and goes up to challenge Riveting Reason from the outside. Velazquez lets Riveting Reason go on with it once they hit the turn, traveling three wide, a length or two off of the longshot leader. Mo continues to travel comfortably, with Velazquez stealing a look back on the backstretch. Mo first puts a nose in front coming to the top of the stretch with minimal asking. Velazquez takes another look back at the competition and gets to work, kicking on clear to a four and a one quarter length win once he hedges up next to the inner rail.

This performance is what made Uncle Mo the clear cut winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby - to have crushed the leaders of his generation, including the then highly touted Boys At Tosconova, so easily was spectacular. What's most extraordinary about this performance, besides that he ran the final 3/16's in 30.48, was his ability to draw away in the blink of an eye when asked. 'Push-button' speed is not common by any means, especially not in stakes races, so for Uncle Mo to exercise such ability so early in his career was quite special.

Full Chart

The Timely Writer 'stakes', a one turn mile at Gulfstream.

Uncle Mo (Post Position 1) breaks to his outside, bumping with Gallant Dreams right out of the gate but doesn't deter Mo from going up and getting the early lead. As they move onto the main train Uncle Mo has a length's advantage over Rattlesnake Bridge from the outside. Mo sets some sluggish fractions (25.53, 49.58) and isn't asked for much until Rattlesnake Bridge ranges up to his outside nearing the stretch. Velazquez doesn't readily assert himself they as they dispose of Rattlesnake Bridge at the top of the stretch and draw away. Mo wins in a hand ride with Velazquez having looked back for the competition in the stretch more than he faces forward.


Not much to this one here, as many correctly deemed this race a public workout for Mo. Having gone so slow early with minimal pressure, at a mile, he almost shouldn't get credit for finishing his final quarter in 22.87 - it's expected of him. The only thing I can take from this so called race is that he looked absolutely fine and there was no physical damage done to him over his winter layoff.


Full Chart
The Grade One Wood Memorial, a mile and an eight going two turns at Aqueduct. 

Uncle Mo (Post Position 4, John Velazquez) 'grabs a quarter' right out of the gate (he also did in the Champagne but no excuses were needed that day) and is hesitantly sent to the lead and is flanked by Duca to his outside. Mo takes them through legitimate fractions for a mile and an eight at the big A (:23.49, 47.98) with Duca "alongside offering mild pressure" as Tom Durkin states. Uncle Mo then fends off Duca and Isn't He Perfect in the stretch to his outside but is unable to kick clear and folds in the final sixteenth of a mile.

This one was a head-scratcher; the pace wasn't so hot that you'd expect Mo to tire late - he actually even got a nice breather mid-race - furlongs four through eight were run in a tepid 49.28. He simply looked like a short horse with distance limitations. The news that he came out of the race with a gastrointestinal tract infection made sense since it is undeniable a healthy, fit, and cranked up Uncle Mo would have beaten this field with the trip he endured. 

Full Chart




Final thoughts - There's no question that Uncle Mo will be an underlay next Saturday. It would take a Big Brown-like performance to win the Kentucky Derby off of one authentic prep race, in which he came out of sick, and has not, reportedly, had the best of appetites since. Year in and out horses who thrive in the few weeks from their final prep to the Derby win or produce a career best effort, which doesn't bode well for Uncle Mo.

Any other Derby entrant who endured his three year old campaign while also coming out of his final prep with an illness, minor as it may be, would be an instant toss and the favorite to finish last. However, Uncle Mo has shown to posses immense talent, such talent that would likely dispel his distance limitations that his pedigree suggests he'll have, and far more than any of his competitors that it would not surprise me should he don the roses. He should also sit a perfect trip, maybe third or fourth early depending how much other pace there is - remember his best race to date came when he was able to stalk and pounce. That being said his campaign and slight illness make him a longer shot than his odds will reflect and while I'll be rooting for him he won't get a dime of my money.





Monday, April 25, 2011

The Jerome

Conditions: Sloppy, sealed one turn mile at Aqueduct.

Adios Charlie - Breaks well and quickly flanks pacesetter Cal Nation from the outside. He begins to take the lead midway around the one turn in the two path after sitting off some moderate fractions of 23:1 and :47. Justin Phillip angles up from the outside and vies for the lead. Into the stretch Justin Phillip takes as much as a full length margin on Charlie, with Cal Nation backing out of it. Just as it looks like Justin Phillip is going to draw off, he begins to spin his wheels at the eighth pole with Charlie re-assuming the lead from his inside. He wins by two and a half lengths.

A masterful ride from Maragh, letting Justin Phillip go on with it anticipating that he’d falter in the stretch, rather than try to instantly battle back and go into an all out drive at the top of the stretch.

Sorry Charlie, but had Justin Phillip not completely dismantled in the stretch, there was no chance he’d have won this race. However he does deserve credit for staying on gamely and re-rallying down on the inside of Phillip. Then again this was run over sloppy track that in all likelihood was the demise of pacesetter Cal Nation, whom Charlie may have had more trouble getting by had this transpired on a fast track. The final quarter was also shockingly slow (24.94) so I’m not too sure what to make of this one just yet. What is undeniable is that Adios Charlie is capable of stalking and pouncing, and isn’t despondent over a sloppy track, but as far as his true class I’ll let that play itself out. He won’t need to be too special to compete with this crop of three year olds, that’s for sure.

Ah Justin Phillip. I haven’t seen a tease like his race here since the Knicks acquired Carmelo. There wasn’t much to his trip that we didn’t cover with Adios Charlie, he ran three and four wide the entire race, moved to the lead without a single nudge from Ramon Dominguez, looked like an easy winner, and finally trotted home like a three-legged mule in the final furlong, even losing second. In hindsight, Dominguez deserves the lion’s share of the blame here for moving too early, but that shouldn’t be an excuse for just how putrid Justin Phillip finished up. Either he isn’t in optimal physical condition, which shouldn’t be the case having this been his second race in two weeks, or he is simply not a horse that you want going past seven furlongs and I have a feeling even that’s stretching it. There is a brightside here, even though he was sitting off much slower fractions than what he’ll get going six panels, he did show an impressive propensity to sit mid pack and pounce. Let’s see if he can take back and close next out going shorter, but if he continues on at a mile or longer I want no part of him.

Poor Astrology, for some reason there’s always been lofty expectations that have gone along with this colt. The fact is he’s plain slow. As far as his trip went, he was forwardly placed along the rail, and didn’t angle out wide until they nearly hit the straightaway. He did nip Justin Phillip at the wire, but that was much more of Phillip struggling than Astrology making a late run. He saved ground throughout the turn and was in contention at the top of the stretch, yet only made marginal headway in that crawling final quarter mile. He may not have loved the mud, but for the most part what you see is what you get with Astrology.

And speaking of not handling the mud, Rattlesnake Bridge never once looked even semi comfortable out there. When you take that into account, his fourth place finish wasn’t all that bad. And as I stated before, I’m also going to go ahead and assume Cal Nation hated the slop. Adios Charlie is simply not twelve lengths better on him on a dry track.

Update: Per DRF Adios Charlie is pointing to the Peter Pan at Belmont, where he'll be an interesting candidate. Astrology is pointing to the Preakness and will be a likely longshot. I'd be shocked if he made any noise there. And lastly there's Justin Phillip who's now pointing to the Woody Stephens to be run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It's a long ways away but if a hot pace presents itself don't be surprised if JP comes running them down late.

Full Chart

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Texas Mile

Thiskyhasnolimit (Post Position 5) gets a decent bump from Friesan Fire out of the gate, but from here Justin Shepard is able to work out a textbook perfect trip. He tracks in fourth down the backside about three wide, sitting chilly behind the dueling Gladding and Kate’s Main Man, who both had no trouble getting to the lead. It only gets better for Shepard when Gabriel Saez moves prematurely with Friesan Fire, widest of them all, still on the backside nearing the turn. Kate’s Main Man begins to drop out of it from the rail while Gladding is able to turn back Friesan Fire’s challenge from the outside as well. Shepard revs up four or five wide to pass Friesan and take on Gladding.  

With Gladding now having already deposed of two challengers, Thiskyhasnolimit should be expected to win going away, yet Gladding is as game as can be with Jon Court doing a tremendous job to get everything out of him, and does not give up the lead until 50 yards out from the wire. Thiskyhasnolimit can only muster a half length win.

Gladding, leading, doing all the dirty work up top. Thiskyhasnolimit, highlighted in white, sitting the perfect trip.


This wasn’t Secretariat’s Belmont, but Gladding was quite astonishing. To have matched strides with Kate’s Main Man, who’s no slouch himself and a solid Grade 3 type, turn back Friesan Fire (finishing 8 3/4s and 7 lengths ahead of these two) and throw down with Thiskyhasnolimit in the stretch was very impressive. Sure the pace wasn’t sizzling (:24:1, 47:4, 1:11:3) but he absolutely ran the best race and should be highly thought of next out, especially at a mile.

And despite winning, Thiskyhasnolimit continues to prove that he needs everything to go his way to win at this level. Be cautious of playing him next out, as this effort will look exceedingly better on paper than it was in all actuality.

Official Chart

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Appalachian Stakes



Winter Memories (Post Position 3) – Taken in hand along the rail after a sharp break, Jose Lezcano retains a strong hold of her on the backside, while sitting midpack. She slows up just a bit early on the grandstand turn to angle outside of Harlan’s Ruby and struggles to switch leads for a few strides then straightens out and reels in Dos Lunas while none of the others were about to mount a serious bid.

While she enjoyed a smooth trip from Lezcano, this was quite an impressive return to the races for Winter Memories. She’s expected her to run down a Dos Lunas in the stretch, lengthy layoff or not, but what makes it such a stand-out performance is that no other filly was able to put together a substantial run to even lightly challenge Dos Lunas in the stretch. Take in to account that we assume Jimmy Toner didn’t have her fully cranked up for a Grade 3 off a five and a half month layoff and we’re looking at the early favorite for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Toner is now pointing her to the Grade 1 Sands Point at Belmont Park, per DRF.

Dos Lunas (Post Position 2) – Given some encouragement from Jon Court early, is confronted by New Normal from the outside and stands her ground but allows New Normal to set the pace. She rides the rail never letting New Normal get away by more than half a length, then takes over when New Normal (bearing out) checks out of it and is outclassed by Winter Memories down the lane. The chart accurately has her giving way "grudginly."

Blinkers off seemed to make a big difference with this filly as she was able to let New Normal set the pace rather than needing the lead. Her stretch run was formidable, but New Normal was coming off the same five and a half month layoff that Winter Memories endured and was clearly a short horse. She reaped the benefits of a surprisingly slow pace (:24, :49, 1:14) not to mention the rail was out quite a bit. While she is improved without the blinkers she’ll have to go farther than a mile (I suspect) as a part of a quicker pace. She also didn’t show true ability to rate yesterday since she was down on the rail and rather than outrunning the pacesetter, New Normal faded due to her lack of conditioning. Until she can prove this wasn’t a fluke, I don’t think much of her in stakes company.

Parting Words (Post Postion 7) – Taken back early and tucks into position on the rail, is quickly boxed in with Ruthenia and Alan Garcia traveling to her immediate right. While it maybe she particularly resents running inside of horses, or she’s just plain green and makes trouble for herself (my guess based on her prior races) she continually fights Leparoux for about three quarters of the backstretch run. She begins to advance at the start of the second turn but is forced to steady.

Parting Words is highlighted in white


After losing momentum Leparoux sits chilly on her rounding the turn, riding the rail. She then gets going mid-stretch, still along the rail and gets up for third by a neck over My Redbyrd. 

Parting Words maybe a nice horse once she figures it out, but it is clear she has not reached that point in her career. She did have some legitimate trouble in this race, which was of some of her own doing. Steadying on the turn hurt, but she did benefit from riding the rail. She’s probably a little better than what she showed here, but I’m guessing not much. Next out – tossing her in a stakes, using her in an allowance race.

My Redbyrd (Post Position 1) - An uneventful trip, Maragh rides the rail with her and doesn't angle out until the straightaway, the pace here was far too slow for her to do any real damage.

Additional thoughts: In what's fairly obvious, look for New Normal to improve next out especially if she finds herself in a spot without too much pace.

Friday, April 22, 2011