Bodemeister's Derby Outlook

January 16^th, race 7 at Santa Anita: maiden special weight limited to 3 year olds. 

Distance: 5 and a half furlongs

Jockey: R. Bejarano

Pace: 21.41, 44.17, 56.14, 1:02.39

Post Position: 10/10

Lots to like in this, seemingly meaningless, debut. First, Bodemeister breaks on top. While I’m no expert, the ability to break from the gate cleanly, especially for a speed horse, seems paramount to success. Second, he gained experience relaxing off the early leader. With Trinniberg in the field, it’s unlikely he’ll make the early lead in the Derby. And who knows, he may even have to contend with Hansen’s rainbow colored tail in his nostrils while rounding the first turn, thus, this experience is crucial. 

His greenness is a concern, but let’s look at it with Bob Baffert colored glasses. He was extremely green in the stretch, while chasing a very talented speed horse in American Act, who had essentially been loose on the lead, and still only lost by two freaking lengths. Did I mention this was at 5 ½ furlongs, and he’s better suited around two turns? 

February 11^th, race 3 at Santa Anita: maiden special limited to 3 year olds 

Distance: 8 furlongs (around two turns)

Jockey: R. Bejarano

Pace: 23.09, 46.95, 1:10.72, 1:22.50, 1:34.55 

Post Position: 8/8

Once Bodemeister is able to clear the field on the first turn after breaking from the far outside yet again, this one was over. Not to criticize his effort, but a talent like Bodemeister, while racing loose on the lead against an overmatched field of maidens, is supposed to win by open lengths. 

What I fancied most about this race, was Bodemeister’s professionalism. In stark contrast from his debut, Bodemeister switched leads on cue at the top of the stretch, and proceeded to draw away, racing straight as can be.

March 10^th, race 9 at Santa Anita: The Grade Two San Felipe Stakes limited to 3 year olds

Distance: 8 and a half furlongs

Jockey: R. Bejarano

Pace: 22.95, 46.98, 1:11.23, 1:35.50, 1:41.84

Post Position: 2/10

Bodemeister’s first test regarding sitting off the lead around two turns, which gave the more insight into his Derby chances than any other of his starts.

Although the chart says that he “pulled early” Bodemeister appeared to race just off of pacesetter American Act’s flank just fine.

The stretch run here got a bit wild, and I’m still not entirely sure what to make of it. As soon as Bodemeister deposed of American Act, he had Creative Cause to deal with on the outside. Once Creative Cause took over, he weaved out towards the outer rail. While I can’t be sure, it looks as it Bejarano went to left hand whip in order to veer Bodemeister out into the middle of the stretch so he’d see Creative Cause. When Bodemeister noticed Creative Cause, he responded gamely.

Although this effort was nothing to be ashamed of, Creative Cause had some massive issues with staying engaged in the stretch, and yet still won. Creative Cause also galloped out much stronger than Bodemeister. 

Creative Cause (highlighted in green) galloping out much better than Bodemeister (highlighted in blue).

This race now serves as the blueprint to beating Bodemeister.

With this effort we can determine that Bodemeister is ‘rate-able’ (although he’s probably better when on the lead) and has a Michael Jordan-like competitive spirit. 

April 14^th, race 11 at Oaklawn Park: The Grade One Arkansas Derby limited to 3 year olds

Distance: 9 furlongs

Jockey: M. Smith

Pace: 23.02, 46.55, 1:11.36, 1:36.74, 1:48.71

Post Position: 11/11

Must like the maiden win, this race was over once Bodemeister cleared Stat on the first turn. Loose on the lead setting reasonable fractions, Bodemeister is going crush any 3 year old field around two turns.

Aside from stamping him the Derby favorite, and demonstrating his ability to relax on the backstretch (furlongs 4-6 went in 24.81) this blowout win was pretty meaningless, since barring any unforeseen circumstances he won’t be on the lead in the Derby.

Pros: Bodemeister has shown in just four career starts that he’s the most talented runner in this year’s Derby. He’s got that coveted high cruising speed that usually eliminates any traffic issues. He doesn’t need the lead. He breaks from the gate without issue. He’s bred to get the distance. He’s training exceptionally well. And I know his low number of career starts is a burden, but it’s encouraging to know that he’s still got boatloads of improvement ahead of him.

Cons: Hasn’t shown much of a propensity to stalk and pounce, which he’ll have to accomplish on Saturday.  With Trinniberg and Hansen, each with a bevy of early speed, the pace may very well be quite brisk. Bodemeister doesn’t seem versatile enough to lay back in 5^th or 6^th if such a scenario were to occur, which could make him a PoP (Prisoner of pace). And not only does Bodemeister have to avoid a hot pace, he cannot be a factor inducing one. In each of his last two starts, he’s been a part of a very hot early fast pace. So not only does Bode have to avoid an eventful pace, he can’t instigate one.

Okay, enough handicapping pace, which is often a futile effort. There’s one constant in each of Bodemeister’s career starts, and it’s his talent. If Bodemeister wins the Derby, nobody ought to be surprised, since much like his father Empire Maker, he’s got worlds of nature ability.

Should things go to plan, once Trinniberg packs it in, it’s quite conceivable that Bodemeister will inherit the lead at the top of the stretch. Whether he has the foundation to hold off the challengers is an unknown, but should be master the art of rating, things bode well for Bodemeister.

Archarcharch's Derby Outlook

Before you watch any of these races you might want to hit the mute button, even Andy Rooney thinks Oaklawn Park announcer Terry Wallace is washed up.

The Grade Three Southwest, one mile around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 6, Jon Court) breaks well and moves along to the first turn in midpack. He loses his footing, baring out to the right just a bit, as he begins to take the turn and gets back to steady sailing three and four wide. Despite the quick early pace Archarcharach begins a continual advance along the backside, and takes on the wall of three longshot pace setters four wide in a move what looked to be premature, but Court bides his time a length off the lead in fourth around the turn. He finally puts away the pacesetters at the quarter pole, also having to deal with closers to his outside, but quickly spurs away to one and a half length lead. Archarcharch shortens his stride late, appearing to have possibly switched back to his left lead but has enough to hold off the closing J P's Gusto at the finish line after having, slightly, cut Gusto off as he runs away, towards the rail, from Court's right handed stick. 


If you cashed on Archarcharch here back in February be sure to thank Jon Court the next time he's at a track near you. This was a hall of fame ride, having gone up and pressed the pace setters to their outside so early turned out to be a brilliant move, scenting the middle fractions would be slow and subsequently getting the jump on the closers. Archarcharch gets credit for having survived a wide trip around both turns, and although he tired late, (the final quarter mile went in 26.19 seconds) that was to be expected since he was asked far earlier than two-three finishers J P's Gusto and Elite Alex.


Full chart

The Grade Two Rebel, a mile and a sixteenth around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 1, Jon Court) picks out a nice spot early along the rail in third, taking the first turn better this go around. While initially about five lengths off of The Factor racing lose on the lead, Archarcharch closes that gap to a length and a half going into the final turn. The Factor lets it out a notch to, again, put a significant amount of ground between he and the rest of the field. Archarcharch rides the rail around the turn and comes back to Caleb's Posse who ranged up from the outside, having looked like he easily had second place wrapped up. He does ends up losing that battle for second, but only by a neck.


The Factor was never going to be caught here, racing lose on the lead setting a controlled pace at nine furlongs, so the loss is inconsequential. However, it's my thinking that rather than being game and resolute to only lose out by a neck to Caleb's Posse, when at the eight pole Caleb's Posse looked like he was going to draw away with second, it had more to do with Caleb's Posse getting to the front (excluding The Factor) after having made a big move on the turn and pulling up some. Archarcharch also rode the rail the entire trip so I'm not too enthralled with this effort.


Full chart

The Grade One Arkansas Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 10, Jon Court) once again breaks in mid-pack and takes the turn about four wide, back in tenth. He makes up about four lengths on the backside, after another wide gradual advancement. He continues to advance on the turn, four and five wide, as the pace begins to collapse. Archarcharch makes a nice run down the stretch - as Sway Away and Dance City, understandably, don't put up much of a fight - and has enough  of an momentum advantage to hold off Nehro at the wire. He pulls up sooner than you'd have liked to have seen going into a 10 furlong race in the gallop out.


Archarcharch's trip here has very much in common with his effort in the Southwest; enjoying a quick pace up front that made mush of the horses up close, (besides Dance City) then advancing wide and having enough of a jump on the closers to hold them off. The middle fractions where he did his damage weren't nearly as slow (furlongs four through six in 24.69 and six through eight in 24.96) as the Southwest, indicating improvement.


Full chart

Final thoughts -Another heady closer, with a pedigree and past performances that suggest he'll have no problem with the ten furlongs, Archarcharch is a prime candidate for Kentucky Derby coronation. 

Besides having taken advantage of the lazy middle fractions in the Southwest, I have no significant knocks on either of his wins at Oaklawn. (The Rebel is a toss for me.) I'm encouraged with his running style - a closer, yes, but Jon Court has shown the foresight to gradually advance him along in his races, earlier than most jocks would, in order to get the jump on the dead closers. Now I'm sure much of this had to do with Oaklawn's short stretch but I wouldn't be surprised should he attempt the same tacit again at Churchill hoping that the dead closers will encounter some traffic in the stretch. 

What's more encouraging is that the Southwest and Arkansas Derby shaped out to take a similar race form as the Derby is expected to: fast early pace with slow middle and final fractions. Archarcharch has obviously preformed admirably under such circumstances.


Let's not forget that Archarcharch is 'experienced' when it comes to this group with six career starts, two as a two year old. He's also shown to be very professional so immaturity shouldn't be an obstacle come Derby day. For me he's a must use at 10-1 or higher.


Here are Archarcharch's PP's.

Nehro's Derby Outlook

Nehro's maiden win, his third career start, a two turn mile at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 10, Michael Baze) breaks slightly to his left and makes some inconsequential contact with a competitor. Baze elects to stay far off of the rail and travels around the clubhouse turn about five wide. He gets a superb setup up front (23, 47.18) and in a flash Nehro rifles past eight competitors, widest of them all to take the lead coming into the stretch. He strides out well to a powerful four and a half length win.


There's no doubt, visually, that Nehro's move on the far turn was quite dashing but it turns out to be fool's gold. Nehro was rallying into very slow fractions (furlongs four through six were run in a lethargic 26.11) and he didn't finish up very fast either (furlongs six through eight went in 25.91). So while many of us thought we may have been looking at the next coming of Afleet Alex, Nehro's win had much more to do with this group of maiden's inability to get the mile distance.


Couldn't find a chart for the race but note that Nehro earned a 79 beyer speed figure here.

The Grade Two Louisiana Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at the Fair Grounds. 

Nehro (Post Position 3, Michael Baze) breaks a bit off balance and makes minor contact with Mavericking to his right. He draws a nice spot, two wide, in third and fourth around the first turn. As they round the final turn, Nehro finds himself inconvenienced for a moment when becomes trapped along the rail. He finds running room after losing momentum and closes well down the stretch, still down on the inside, coming up a half length short to a tiring Pants On Fire.


Much to decipher here - first, there is Nehro's trip. Having expected to see him lope along in the back off the pack off of his maiden win, his versatility to sit closer to the lead is encouraging (but maybe the reason why Baze was taken off him after this race). And had he not found trouble at the top of the stretch he would have likely won the race.


The pace - it certainly held up, with the first three finishers having run 2-3-4 just about the entire race, but I'm not totally inclined to point to the, somewhat, slow pace as much of an aide. The best closers here were Elite Alex, Machen, and Wilkinson - not exactly any world beaters. The race was slow enough (94 beyer) that this group of closers had no excuse not to make any noise, so perhaps the pace didn't have as much to do with the result as we might have originally thought. 

Full chart

The Grade One Arkansas Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 1, Corey Nakatani) has no trouble at the gate and quickly drops out of it along the rail. He gets a dream setup with J P's Gusto craving out swift fractions (22.54, 46.53) and begins to advance, swinging out wide, on the second turn as the pace begins to collapse. Nehro puts up a notable run down the stretch to just miss, the also closing, Archarcharch at the wire.


A terrific race from Nehro, although he got a dream setup pace wise (fast early fractions, slow late) - to have made up almost three lengths on Archarcharch, who also reaped the benefits of the fast pace, in the stretch to only lose by a neck was fantastic. Note Nehro also galloped out far very well.

Full chart

Final thoughts - Nehro, particularly in his final prep, has shown a honed, much desired (particularly in the Derby), quality to sit back and pick up the pieces late. Nehro will be closing late, how potent his kick will be depends on the amount of early speed in the race, and if you're looking for a closer he has displayed he's, quite possibly, the class of that group. His run in the Louisiana Derby also proved his versatility, which will be called on a week from today. His pedigree confirms, as well as his gallop out in the Arkansas Derby, that the final furlong should be no problem. I'm lastly encouraged with his professionalism, despite only five lifetime starts. 

If you subscribe to the thinking that they'll be a hot pace come Derby day, this is probably your guy. Here's to hoping he floats up to 10-1.


Nehro's PP's