The Kentucky Derby

Animal Kingdom 

In the hopes to retain objectivity, I've re-watched Animal Kingdom's trip maybe 15 times (an arduous task when NBC has 2 announcers calling the same race) attempting to find a single knock on his race. I cannot. I'm smitten with Animal Kingdom, and not just entirely because he was my top pick in the Derby. The ease of which he possessed winning, in just his fifth career start on a surface that may not be a favorite of his, off of a 6 week layoff, was marveling.

He received a dazzling ride by John Velazquez; splitting Santiva and Soldat on turn and then correctly deciding to go outside of Mucho Macho Man at the top of the stretch. This wasn't the most closer-friendly race, I don't think many would have been surprised had Shackleford come home the winner when the 1/2 mile time of 48.63 was posted. Actually, the pace was more of the Belmont Stakes, with the field doing their best to click off :12 furlongs, rather than a typical, torrid early paced Kentucky Derby. Along with his pedigree, this bodes quite well for Animal Kingdom's chances in the Belmont should he continue his winning ways in Balitmore.

And as for the Preakness, with perspective starters such as Shackleford, Dance City, and Flashpoint, Animal Kingdom should get a favorable setup up front. I can't see Shackleford getting away with another uncontested slow pace. Animal Kingdom is also a fresh colt, so at this juncture I expect him to win the Preakness.

Nehro

An admirable second from Nehro despite moving too soon on the final turn and having traveled so wide the entire trip. The inside was not the place to be but he still ran much more than 10 furlongs. Although I do believe that Nakatani moved too soon, he is without blame. Having sensed that the pace was slow, advancing to take the lead, early on the final turn, wasn't a bad move by any means but in hindsight he probably would have been better served waiting just a bit longer. Perhaps he would have had more in the tank late to challenge Animal Kingdom, not that I think Nehro was ever going to beat Animal Kingdom last Saturday.

Nehro continues to impress, especially with such versatility. It's my opinion that he's best making one run, as he demonstrated in Arkansas Derby so I would like to see Zayat and Asmussen point him to the Preakness, with an expected faster pace, rather than the Belmont.

Mucho Macho Man

Mucho Macho Man lacks spark. He'll never take your breath away. But in a crop of 3 three years mired with inconsistency of epic proportion, Mucho Macho Man is dependable as they come and he won't even have his 3 year old birthday until June 15th. His run in the Derby was exactly what is he at this point in this career, solid but not spectalular. Classy but not flashy.

I suppose he'll get a similar trip in the Preakness as to Nehro's trip here - sitting close and pouncing on the pacesetters on the final turn, getting the first run on the closers. As I've maintained the pace is expected to be quicker, so the profile of the Preakness does not suit Mucho Macho Man, as he's best stalking a slow pace such as his race in the Risen Star.

Shackleford

Although Shackleford was able to find himself loose on the lead, setting an incredibly slow pace, (Steven Crist delves into just how unhurried the pace was on his blog) as @ianlozada points out, he was the only top finisher who raced along a somewhat dead rail. I'll go along and hypothesize that both factors canceled themselves out.

Dialed In

As proactive as Corey Nakatani was, reacting to the slow pace, Julien Leparoux was as stubborn. Taking back to last, and racing along the rail no less, Leparoux and Dialed In fell victim to the lazy pace, but this wasn't his only deterrent, as his stretch run was unexcusably flat. His performance did little to change my pre-Derby opinion of him that he is best at a mile. Zito can say whatever he likes how Dialed In will relish the quick turnaround but he and owner Robert LaPenta have 6,100,000 reasons to run him back in the Preakness, none of which are anticipated success. 

{Edit: In a complete flip-flop, I've changed my opinion on Dialed In within the last few days; afterall he was up against the slow pace and got no help from Leparoux. As stated in Crist's article, Dialed In ran his final 2 quarters in 23.19 and 23.76, quite exceptional, especially at 10 furlongs. It's now my thinking that he'll be the main threat to Animal Kingdom in the Preakness.}


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Midnight Interlude's Derby Outlook

Midnight Interlude's maiden victory - a two-turn mile, maiden special weight at Santa Anita. (Wet-Fast Track)

Pace: 23.02, 45.77, 1:10.11, 1:22.91, 1:36.25

Midnight Interlude (Post Position 3, Joel Rosario) has an uneventful trip here, after breaking well and finding himself on the lead. Riding the rail the entire trip, Grip Hands does a nice job pressing Interlude into a second quarter of 22.75, but Interlude then relaxes and slows the pace to his liking from then on. Once Grip Hands throws in the towel at the top of the stretch, Interlude draws off to an easy eight and a half length win.


Not much to go on here, facing just four rivals - only one of whom Interlude had any authentic contact with. I'm not going to pretend I know anything about Grip Hands, but Interlude having dueled him into submission before finishing last can only be looked at as a positive. Interlude, sans quickening the second quarter too fast, was very professional in the win.


Equibase chart 

The Grade One Santa Anita Derby at a mile and an eight around two turns.

Pace: 22.81, 47.33, 1:11.53, 1:36.05, 1:48.66 


Midnight Interlude (Post Position 6, Victor Espinoza) breaks well and shows speed, sitting two lengths off the lead, on the outside (five wide) around the clubhouse turn. The opening quarter is very quick, but leader Comma to the Top is able to slow the pace, running the second quarter in 24.52. After having sat in third, a length off the leader on the backside, Comma to the Top mildly spurts away on the final turn. Interlude, now three lengths back, still in third begins to advance on the outside with Espinoza going to the left handed whip. Comma to the Top maintains his spot in the four path as Interlude shifts in behind him and is forced to steady. Once Espinoza is able to straighten Interlude out he finally wears down Comma to the Top in the shadow of the wire.

Midnight Interlude, highlighted in white, steadying behind Comma to the Top in the stretch.

Having first thought Midnight Interlude's kick in the stretch, once he escaped trouble, was unsatisfactory, after studying the pace, reeling in Comma to the Top was no easy task. Comma has the tools to become a nice miler, and becomes a tough catch on the lead when he's enabled to run three quarter miles, slower than :24, in a row. Had Interlude been able to keep a straight line in the stretch he may have won by two or three lengths.

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Final thoughts - No question, Midnight Interlude is very talented. Jumping up from a maiden special weight to win the Santa Anita Derby is quite notable. He's just beginning to blossom, and I'm sure he's got some fantastic performances ahead of him but the Derby will not be one of them.

I do accept that Midnight Interlude ran a nice race in the Santa Anita Derby, but take a look at the chart. I'm no connoisseur of the races out west, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't the weakest field ever assembled for the Santa Anita Derby.

His best asset, tactical speed, becomes a disadvantage in the Derby since we're expecting a hot pace with so many others (Uncle Mo, Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Soldat, Comma to the Top, Shackleford, and Decisive Moment) with early speed as well. Perhaps he'll be able to stalk and pounce at the quarter pole, but I don't see him holding off the closers down the lane.

I look for Midnight Interlude to show promise later in the year, (maybe even in two weeks) where he'll get much more of a favorable pace setup but on Saturday he'll be an underlay if he drops below 18-1.

Midnight Interlude's PP's

Toby's Corner's Derby Outlook

The Whirlaway Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth around two turns on the inner track at Aqueduct. (Muddy Track)

Pace: 23.53, 48.80, 1:14.03, 1:39.31, 1:45.66

Video of the race can be seen here.


Toby's Corner (Post Position 1, Eddie Castro) takes back to last early and rides the rail along the clubhouse turn behind a solid first quarter. He draws closer on the final turn and begins his move after swinging out, six to seven wide, outside of Arthur's Tale and Preachintothedevil. He draws alongside J J's Lucky Train, whom had a perfect trip racing loose on the lead, mid-stretch with his head cocked to right (curious to check out out the grandstand construction I suppose) still racing on his left lead. He unimpressively allows J J's Lucky Train back in it but finally pulls away, once he straightens his head and switches to his right lead, to a two length win.


Had J J's Lucky Train turned out to be a respectable route runner I'd have been most intrigued with Toby's Corner's win here, but alas J J's Lucky Train has turned out to be a sprinter. Not to say J J's Lucky Train is a complete dog while racing loose on the lead setting slow fractions going a mile and a sixteenth, but it's not his A game. Nevertheless, Toby's Corner winning the race, despite his immaturity in the stretch, was encouraging.

The Grade Three Gotham stakes, a mile and a sixteenth around turn turns on the inner track at Aqueduct.

Pace: 24.79, 49.18, 1:13.47, 1:38.37, 1:44.78


Toby's Corner (Post Position 4, Eddie Castro) tussles with the bit early and rounds the first turn three to four wide. He gets a fine spot in sixth on the backside then slightly advances on the turn having been put to a drive heading into the stretch. Despite Castro's efforts Toby again kicks his head out to the right and appears to have some difficulty switching to his appropriate right lead. Eventually he does straighten out but is unable to find another gear, finishing a flat third.

A disappointing performance since Toby showed regression having performed the same antics he showed in the Whirlaway, as well as fighting the bit. The pace was slow enough that expecting a win would have been asking too much, but you would have liked to have seen some maturation.

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The Grade One Wood Memorial, a mile and an eight around two turns on the main track at Aqueduct.

Toby's Corner - Blinkers ON

Pace:  23.49, 47.98, 1:12.28, 1:37.26, 1:49.93


Toby's Corner (Post Position 2, Eddie Castro) comes out to his left at the break, bumping Starship Caesar. He then settles and finds a great spot along the rail into and around the turn. He slightly advances down the backstretch run but finds himself in a tough spot on the rail, mid-way on the final turn. Fortunately he does not ever have to steady as he Castro sweeps him out into the three path at the top of the stretch. His lane there is closed once Norman Asbjornson slides over in his path. Toby's Corner is steadied while taken out in between Norman and Arthur's Tale on the outside. He takes a few strides to retain his momentum, with his head slightly arched to the right, and straightens out to rally past Arthur's Tale from his inside. He wins by a neck.

Toby's Corner, highlight in white, steadying behind Norman Asbjornson in the stretch.

This colossal upset took magnificent growth from Toby's Corner, most of which I'm guessing had to do with the added blinkers. Although he did have a minor hiccup in the stretch, his improved efficiency was much to like, as there's never been a question that he is quite talented. While he did save every inch of ground, he also overcame a significant obstacle from a pace perspective. 47.98 and 1:12.28 aren't fractions that aide closers. Throw in his mid-stretch skirmish with Norman Asbjornson and this was obviously a tremendous performance.

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Final thoughts - Up until the Wood, Toby's Corner has reminded me of a three year old Eddington in 2004. His regular jockey, Jerry Bailey, would speak to his talent and inability to run a full race at peak performance - instead he would do his running in 'spots'. But now with those blinkers on, Toby's Corner has taken a distinct step in the right direction and is most likely on the upswing. 


What I find most interesting about Toby's Corner is that, of all the top choice closers in the Derby (Dialed In, Nehro, Archarcharch, Animal Kingdom) he's the only colt to have not benefited from a scolding, white-hot early pace which may just present itself in the Derby.


My knock on Toby's Corner is that I'm torn over what I think of this year's rendition of the Wood Memorial, after all, Arthur's Tale was second by a neck. I'm not saying Arthur's Tale isn't of quality, but I'm suspect of his true abilities at this point in time. And as we all know, Uncle Mo was not himself in the Wood. Toby's Corner also might not relish the tenth furlong according to his pedigree.


I'll certainly be using Toby's Corner on Saturday, but probably more so on the bottom of my exacta's and trifecta's.

Toby's PP's

Archarcharch's Derby Outlook

Before you watch any of these races you might want to hit the mute button, even Andy Rooney thinks Oaklawn Park announcer Terry Wallace is washed up.

The Grade Three Southwest, one mile around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 6, Jon Court) breaks well and moves along to the first turn in midpack. He loses his footing, baring out to the right just a bit, as he begins to take the turn and gets back to steady sailing three and four wide. Despite the quick early pace Archarcharach begins a continual advance along the backside, and takes on the wall of three longshot pace setters four wide in a move what looked to be premature, but Court bides his time a length off the lead in fourth around the turn. He finally puts away the pacesetters at the quarter pole, also having to deal with closers to his outside, but quickly spurs away to one and a half length lead. Archarcharch shortens his stride late, appearing to have possibly switched back to his left lead but has enough to hold off the closing J P's Gusto at the finish line after having, slightly, cut Gusto off as he runs away, towards the rail, from Court's right handed stick. 


If you cashed on Archarcharch here back in February be sure to thank Jon Court the next time he's at a track near you. This was a hall of fame ride, having gone up and pressed the pace setters to their outside so early turned out to be a brilliant move, scenting the middle fractions would be slow and subsequently getting the jump on the closers. Archarcharch gets credit for having survived a wide trip around both turns, and although he tired late, (the final quarter mile went in 26.19 seconds) that was to be expected since he was asked far earlier than two-three finishers J P's Gusto and Elite Alex.


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The Grade Two Rebel, a mile and a sixteenth around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 1, Jon Court) picks out a nice spot early along the rail in third, taking the first turn better this go around. While initially about five lengths off of The Factor racing lose on the lead, Archarcharch closes that gap to a length and a half going into the final turn. The Factor lets it out a notch to, again, put a significant amount of ground between he and the rest of the field. Archarcharch rides the rail around the turn and comes back to Caleb's Posse who ranged up from the outside, having looked like he easily had second place wrapped up. He does ends up losing that battle for second, but only by a neck.


The Factor was never going to be caught here, racing lose on the lead setting a controlled pace at nine furlongs, so the loss is inconsequential. However, it's my thinking that rather than being game and resolute to only lose out by a neck to Caleb's Posse, when at the eight pole Caleb's Posse looked like he was going to draw away with second, it had more to do with Caleb's Posse getting to the front (excluding The Factor) after having made a big move on the turn and pulling up some. Archarcharch also rode the rail the entire trip so I'm not too enthralled with this effort.


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The Grade One Arkansas Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Archarcharch (Post Position 10, Jon Court) once again breaks in mid-pack and takes the turn about four wide, back in tenth. He makes up about four lengths on the backside, after another wide gradual advancement. He continues to advance on the turn, four and five wide, as the pace begins to collapse. Archarcharch makes a nice run down the stretch - as Sway Away and Dance City, understandably, don't put up much of a fight - and has enough  of an momentum advantage to hold off Nehro at the wire. He pulls up sooner than you'd have liked to have seen going into a 10 furlong race in the gallop out.


Archarcharch's trip here has very much in common with his effort in the Southwest; enjoying a quick pace up front that made mush of the horses up close, (besides Dance City) then advancing wide and having enough of a jump on the closers to hold them off. The middle fractions where he did his damage weren't nearly as slow (furlongs four through six in 24.69 and six through eight in 24.96) as the Southwest, indicating improvement.


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Final thoughts -Another heady closer, with a pedigree and past performances that suggest he'll have no problem with the ten furlongs, Archarcharch is a prime candidate for Kentucky Derby coronation. 

Besides having taken advantage of the lazy middle fractions in the Southwest, I have no significant knocks on either of his wins at Oaklawn. (The Rebel is a toss for me.) I'm encouraged with his running style - a closer, yes, but Jon Court has shown the foresight to gradually advance him along in his races, earlier than most jocks would, in order to get the jump on the dead closers. Now I'm sure much of this had to do with Oaklawn's short stretch but I wouldn't be surprised should he attempt the same tacit again at Churchill hoping that the dead closers will encounter some traffic in the stretch. 

What's more encouraging is that the Southwest and Arkansas Derby shaped out to take a similar race form as the Derby is expected to: fast early pace with slow middle and final fractions. Archarcharch has obviously preformed admirably under such circumstances.


Let's not forget that Archarcharch is 'experienced' when it comes to this group with six career starts, two as a two year old. He's also shown to be very professional so immaturity shouldn't be an obstacle come Derby day. For me he's a must use at 10-1 or higher.


Here are Archarcharch's PP's.

Nehro's Derby Outlook

Nehro's maiden win, his third career start, a two turn mile at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 10, Michael Baze) breaks slightly to his left and makes some inconsequential contact with a competitor. Baze elects to stay far off of the rail and travels around the clubhouse turn about five wide. He gets a superb setup up front (23, 47.18) and in a flash Nehro rifles past eight competitors, widest of them all to take the lead coming into the stretch. He strides out well to a powerful four and a half length win.


There's no doubt, visually, that Nehro's move on the far turn was quite dashing but it turns out to be fool's gold. Nehro was rallying into very slow fractions (furlongs four through six were run in a lethargic 26.11) and he didn't finish up very fast either (furlongs six through eight went in 25.91). So while many of us thought we may have been looking at the next coming of Afleet Alex, Nehro's win had much more to do with this group of maiden's inability to get the mile distance.


Couldn't find a chart for the race but note that Nehro earned a 79 beyer speed figure here.

The Grade Two Louisiana Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at the Fair Grounds. 

Nehro (Post Position 3, Michael Baze) breaks a bit off balance and makes minor contact with Mavericking to his right. He draws a nice spot, two wide, in third and fourth around the first turn. As they round the final turn, Nehro finds himself inconvenienced for a moment when becomes trapped along the rail. He finds running room after losing momentum and closes well down the stretch, still down on the inside, coming up a half length short to a tiring Pants On Fire.


Much to decipher here - first, there is Nehro's trip. Having expected to see him lope along in the back off the pack off of his maiden win, his versatility to sit closer to the lead is encouraging (but maybe the reason why Baze was taken off him after this race). And had he not found trouble at the top of the stretch he would have likely won the race.


The pace - it certainly held up, with the first three finishers having run 2-3-4 just about the entire race, but I'm not totally inclined to point to the, somewhat, slow pace as much of an aide. The best closers here were Elite Alex, Machen, and Wilkinson - not exactly any world beaters. The race was slow enough (94 beyer) that this group of closers had no excuse not to make any noise, so perhaps the pace didn't have as much to do with the result as we might have originally thought. 

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The Grade One Arkansas Derby, a mile and an eight around two turns at Oaklawn Park.

Nehro (Post Position 1, Corey Nakatani) has no trouble at the gate and quickly drops out of it along the rail. He gets a dream setup with J P's Gusto craving out swift fractions (22.54, 46.53) and begins to advance, swinging out wide, on the second turn as the pace begins to collapse. Nehro puts up a notable run down the stretch to just miss, the also closing, Archarcharch at the wire.


A terrific race from Nehro, although he got a dream setup pace wise (fast early fractions, slow late) - to have made up almost three lengths on Archarcharch, who also reaped the benefits of the fast pace, in the stretch to only lose by a neck was fantastic. Note Nehro also galloped out far very well.

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Final thoughts - Nehro, particularly in his final prep, has shown a honed, much desired (particularly in the Derby), quality to sit back and pick up the pieces late. Nehro will be closing late, how potent his kick will be depends on the amount of early speed in the race, and if you're looking for a closer he has displayed he's, quite possibly, the class of that group. His run in the Louisiana Derby also proved his versatility, which will be called on a week from today. His pedigree confirms, as well as his gallop out in the Arkansas Derby, that the final furlong should be no problem. I'm lastly encouraged with his professionalism, despite only five lifetime starts. 

If you subscribe to the thinking that they'll be a hot pace come Derby day, this is probably your guy. Here's to hoping he floats up to 10-1.


Nehro's PP's

Uncle Mo's Derby Outlook

With the Kentucky Derby right around the corner, I'm going to do the best I can to go back and look at some of this year's contenders prior races using trip handicapping. I've already examined Dialed In, having guest posted over at WirePlayers.

Disclaimer: This group has shown to be highly erratic (Mine That Bird would be formidable this year) and given the Derby's usual uncertainly, even with a formful prep season, we're in for quite a task to come up with a winner.

Here are Uncle Mo's PP's, as well as a link to the video of his debut race as a two year old last summer at Saratoga.

The Grade One Champagne stakes, a one turn mile at Belmont Park.


Uncle Mo (Post Position 3, John Velazquez) breaks well and has no problem making the lead with the other main speed, I'm Steppin' It Up to his outside. He duels with I'm Steppin' It up while retaining a head advantage as Velazquez keeps a strong hold of Mo. Despite Velazquez's efforts to ration Mo's speed, they set a brisk early pace of 22:2 and 45:4. Coming into the stretch he disposes of I'm Steppin' It Up and never lets the oncoming Mountain Town mount a serious bid, despite slightly lugging in a few times down the stretch as he strides out to a four and three quarter length win without much urging. 


A classy win here - running an an opening quarter of 22:4 and still having enough in the tank to finish his final two furlongs in nearly :24 flat in September of his two year old season off of just one career, six furlong, race. None of his competitors in this race have turned out to be much but that isn't enough to take away from this fabulous race from Uncle Mo. 

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The Grade One Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a mile and a sixteenth going two turns at Churchill Downs.

Uncle Mo (Post Position 7, John Velazquez) breaks from the gate perfectly and goes up to challenge Riveting Reason from the outside. Velazquez lets Riveting Reason go on with it once they hit the turn, traveling three wide, a length or two off of the longshot leader. Mo continues to travel comfortably, with Velazquez stealing a look back on the backstretch. Mo first puts a nose in front coming to the top of the stretch with minimal asking. Velazquez takes another look back at the competition and gets to work, kicking on clear to a four and a one quarter length win once he hedges up next to the inner rail.

This performance is what made Uncle Mo the clear cut winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby - to have crushed the leaders of his generation, including the then highly touted Boys At Tosconova, so easily was spectacular. What's most extraordinary about this performance, besides that he ran the final 3/16's in 30.48, was his ability to draw away in the blink of an eye when asked. 'Push-button' speed is not common by any means, especially not in stakes races, so for Uncle Mo to exercise such ability so early in his career was quite special.

Full Chart

The Timely Writer 'stakes', a one turn mile at Gulfstream.

Uncle Mo (Post Position 1) breaks to his outside, bumping with Gallant Dreams right out of the gate but doesn't deter Mo from going up and getting the early lead. As they move onto the main train Uncle Mo has a length's advantage over Rattlesnake Bridge from the outside. Mo sets some sluggish fractions (25.53, 49.58) and isn't asked for much until Rattlesnake Bridge ranges up to his outside nearing the stretch. Velazquez doesn't readily assert himself they as they dispose of Rattlesnake Bridge at the top of the stretch and draw away. Mo wins in a hand ride with Velazquez having looked back for the competition in the stretch more than he faces forward.


Not much to this one here, as many correctly deemed this race a public workout for Mo. Having gone so slow early with minimal pressure, at a mile, he almost shouldn't get credit for finishing his final quarter in 22.87 - it's expected of him. The only thing I can take from this so called race is that he looked absolutely fine and there was no physical damage done to him over his winter layoff.


Full Chart

The Grade One Wood Memorial, a mile and an eight going two turns at Aqueduct. 

Uncle Mo (Post Position 4, John Velazquez) 'grabs a quarter' right out of the gate (he also did in the Champagne but no excuses were needed that day) and is hesitantly sent to the lead and is flanked by Duca to his outside. Mo takes them through legitimate fractions for a mile and an eight at the big A (:23.49, 47.98) with Duca "alongside offering mild pressure" as Tom Durkin states. Uncle Mo then fends off Duca and Isn't He Perfect in the stretch to his outside but is unable to kick clear and folds in the final sixteenth of a mile.

This one was a head-scratcher; the pace wasn't so hot that you'd expect Mo to tire late - he actually even got a nice breather mid-race - furlongs four through eight were run in a tepid 49.28. He simply looked like a short horse with distance limitations. The news that he came out of the race with a gastrointestinal tract infection made sense since it is undeniable a healthy, fit, and cranked up Uncle Mo would have beaten this field with the trip he endured. 

Full Chart




Final thoughts - There's no question that Uncle Mo will be an underlay next Saturday. It would take a Big Brown-like performance to win the Kentucky Derby off of one authentic prep race, in which he came out of sick, and has not, reportedly, had the best of appetites since. Year in and out horses who thrive in the few weeks from their final prep to the Derby win or produce a career best effort, which doesn't bode well for Uncle Mo.

Any other Derby entrant who endured his three year old campaign while also coming out of his final prep with an illness, minor as it may be, would be an instant toss and the favorite to finish last. However, Uncle Mo has shown to posses immense talent, such talent that would likely dispel his distance limitations that his pedigree suggests he'll have, and far more than any of his competitors that it would not surprise me should he don the roses. He should also sit a perfect trip, maybe third or fourth early depending how much other pace there is - remember his best race to date came when he was able to stalk and pounce. That being said his campaign and slight illness make him a longer shot than his odds will reflect and while I'll be rooting for him he won't get a dime of my money.